Following our investigation of the USA Standard and Poor index anti-bubble that started in August 2000 (Quant. Finance 2 (2002) 468), we analyze 38 world stock market indices and identify 21 “bearish anti-bubbles” and six “bullish anti-bubbles”. An “anti-bubble” is defined as a...

Self-organized criticality (SOC) in systems governed by stick-slip dynamics is studied by means of a spring-block model. Contrary to conventional models which are loaded additively in their stationary states, our model is driven towards equilibrium in a multiplicative and isotropic manner via a...

We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy that have been ongoing since 2007 are rooted in the delusionary belief in policies based on a “perpetual money machine” type of thinking. We document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s, consumption has been increasingly funded by...

We study a rational expectation model of bubbles and crashes. The model has two components: (1) our key assumption is that a crash may be caused by local self-reinforcing imitation between noise traders. If the tendency for noise traders to imitate their nearest neighbors increases up to a...

In this paper we present a detailed synthesis of the development of the Human Genome Project (HGP) from the mid 1980s through 2000, in order to test our hypothesis of “social bubbles”, which claims that strong social interactions between enthusiastic supporters weave a network of reinforcing...

We develop a principal-agent model based on a sequential game played by a representative investor and a fund manager in an asymmetric information framework. The model shows that investors’ perceptions of the fund market play the key role in the fund’s fee-setting mechanism. The managers’...

We present a general methodology to incorporate fundamental economic factors to our previous theory of herding to describe bubbles and antibubbles. We start from the strong form of Rational Expectation and derive the general method to incorporate factors in addition to the log-periodic power law...

We study a dynamical Ising model of agents' opinions (buy or sell) with coupling coefficients reassessed continuously in time according to how past external news (magnetic field) have explained realized market returns. By combining herding, the impact of external news and private information, we...