Let X, Y be two discrete random variables with finite support and X≥Y. Suppose that the conditional distribution of Y given X can be factorized in a certain way. This paper provides a method of deriving the unique form of the marginal distribution of X (and hence the joint distribution of (X,...

The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate issues (CGER) has been conducting exchange rate assessments as part of the surveillance process since 1997. This paper evaluates CGER assessments from 1997 to 2006, by comparing these to subsequent movements in real effective exchange rates (REER)....

In many practical situations bivariate probability distributions are used whose marginals are of the same form. Sometimes however, in cases of a not too good fit, one of the marginals appears to describe the corresponding observed data exceptionally well while the other provides a rather poor...

We analyze the effect of IMF programs on economic agents' expectations about the economy in transitional countries using survey data from the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer poll, an annual general public survey monitoring the evolution of public opinion from 1990 to 1997. Previous studies, in...

Consider a model in which a consumer faces a lottery with j other people for a prize, so that the probability of winning the prize is 1/(j+1). Now let j be a random variable, determined by the binomial distribution. Specifically, let there be n potential competitors for the consumer in the...

Lee and Carter proposed in 1992 a non-linear model mxt = exp (ax + bx kt + εxt) for fitting and forecasting age-specific mortality rates at age x and time t. For the model parameter estimation, they employed the singular value decomposition method to find a least squares solution. However, the...

In this paper, an alternative randomized response procedure is given that allows us to estimate the population proportion in addition to the probability of providing a truthful answer. It overcomes a difficulty associated with traditional randomized response techniques. Properties of the...

This survey reviews a number of different fundamentals-based models for estimating default probabilities for firms and/or industries, and illustrates them with real applications by practitioners and policy making institutions. The models are especially useful when the firms analyzed do not have...