Die vorliegende Bewertung der Treffgenauigkeit von Prognosen sowie von vorläufigen amtlichen Berechnungen zur wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in Deutschland zeigt, dass frühe Prognosen nicht nur sehr ungenau sind, sondern auch systematisch zu optimistisch ausfallen. Die mehr als ein Jahr im...

Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes available. We suggest that revisions of data is an important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy. This paper evaluates the quality of major real macroeconomic Euro area variables, published by...

We consider the overdamped version of two coupled anharmonic oscillators with the external periodic force fsinωt and Gaussian noise term η(t) added to one of the two state variables of the system. Linear stability analysis is carried out in the absence of external periodic force and noise....

A linear transmitter with correlated Gaussian white additive and multiplicative noises and a periodic signal coupled either additively or multiplicatively is considered. The correlations have a weak destructive effect in case of the additive signal and a strong constructive effect in case of the...

Based on an R2-valued random sample {(yi,xi),1≤i≤n} on the simple linear regression model yi=xiβ+α+εi with unknown error variables εi, least squares processes (LSPs) are introduced in D[0,1] for the unknown slope β and intercept α, as well as for the unknown β when α=0. These LSPs...

The use of description length principles to select an appropriate number of basis functions for functional data is investigated. A flexible definition of the dimension of a random function that is constructed directly from the Karhunen–Loève expansion of the observed process or data...

In this paper, we investigate the use of wavelet techniques in the study of the nth order fractional Brownian motion (n-fBm). First, we exploit the continuous wavelet transform’s capabilities in derivative calculation to construct a two-step estimator of the scaling exponent of the n-fBm...

This paper investigates effects of a signal-to-noise ratio on finite sample inference for cointegrating vectors. The ratio is defined as a measure of the magnitude of a permanent shock relative to a transitory shock. According to Monte Carlo experiments conducted in this paper, a high...

Stochastic resonance (SR) induced by the signal modulation is investigated, by introducing the signal-modulated gain into a single-mode laser system. Using the linear approximation method, we detailedly calculate the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of a gain-noise model of the single-mode laser,...

Stochastic resonance (SR) in an over-damped linear system subjected to an excitation of bias signal modulated noise with multiplicative and additive noises is investigated. We obtain the exact expressions of the first two moments and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the output by using...