We study settlement fails for trades in the Government of Canada bond market. We find that settlement fails do not occur independently. Using a novel and comprehensive dataset, we examine three drivers of fails. First, we find that fails are more likely following the release of surprise...

We use relative value to measure limits to arbitrage in fixed-income markets. Relative value captures apparent deviations from no-arbitrage relationships. It is simple, intuitive and can be computed model-free for any bond. A pseudo-trading strategy based on relative value generates higher...

Fixed-income markets were disrupted at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis. As whole industries temporarily shut down, businesses and households ran down their savings or needed credit to survive income losses. As volatility increased, portfolio managers sold securities to manage their...

We build a model for bond yields based on a small-scale representation of an economy with secular declines in inflation, the real rate and output growth. Long-run restrictions identify nominal shocks that influence long-run inflation but do not influence the long-run real rate or output growth....

Theory predicts that funding conditions faced by financial intermediaries are an important limit to arbitrage. We identify and measure the value of funding liquidity from the cross-section of Treasury securities. To validate our interpretation, we establish linkages with funding conditions in...