Analyzing the reasons of financial crises in "The Black Swans," N.N. Taleb concludes that modern economic models badly describe reality for they are not able to forecast such crises in advance.We tried to present processes on stock exchange as two random processes one of which happens rather...

The behavior on a stock exchange can be represented as a reaction to the flow of events of two types entering the financial market – “regular” events and “crises”. Broker's wealth depends on how successfully she identifies which event – crisis or not – occurs at the moment. It was...