This paper analyzes the decision of a government facing electoral uncertainty to implement structural reforms in the presence of fiscal restraints similar to the Stability and Growth Pact. The model shows that a pact may harm structural reforms, sacrificing future growth for present stability....

Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of...

This paper explores initiatives to date by the IMF, financial markets, and civil society organizations to assess and utilize information on fiscal transparency. The results of surveys and interviews of rating agency analysts and surveys of civil society organizations on their level of awareness...

This paper looks at the link between fiscal policy and debt sustainability in a number of African countries participating in the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. The paper finds that, on the basis of current fiscal policies, debt levels will remain unsustainable even after...

Fiscal policy in oil-producing countries can be profoundly affected by oil revenue uncertainty and volatility. Policy formulation should factor in the exhaustibility of the natural resources and aim at reducing oil revenue volatility passed on to the economy. Past fiscal policy in Nigeria has...

We study the smoothing impact of fiscal stabilizers (proxied by government expenditures or revenues) on business cycle volatility for a panel of EU countries in the period 1970-99. The results show that the business cycle volatility smoothing effect of fiscal stabilizers may revert at high...

Conventional wisdom has held that a fixed exchange rate regime induces more fiscal discipline, but Tornell and Velasco (1995, 1998) argue the opposite. Using a dynamic model with fragmented fiscal policymaking, this paper evaluates the two arguments in a single framework and shows that (1)...

Sweden was among the first to falter in the great recession. The downturn was mitigated by aggressive stabilization policies, led by a sharp relaxation of monetary policy, a slew of emergency financial sector support measures, and actions raising bank capital. The policy actions taken were...

This Article IV Consultation reports that the overall balance of the central government of Paraguay is expected to be in equilibrium, while the central bank intends to withdraw excess liquidity as necessary to limit inflation to no more than 5 percent. Executive Directors commended the...

The staff report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights the Slovak Republic’s macroeconomic outlook and policy discussions. The National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) has been following a hybrid monetary framework focused on restraining inflation and on maintaining the exchange rate within...