Using Hungarian macroeconomic and financial data, we estimate a Bayesian structural VAR model suitable for macroprudential simulations. We identify standard macroeconomic and credit supply shocks by sign and zero restrictions. In contrast to the previous literature, different types of credit...

This paper investigates the existence of significant spillovers from the housing sector onto the wider economy for the seven major OECD countries using Uhlig's (2005) agnostic identification procedure. This method allows identifying a housing demand shock in a six-variable VAR model by imposing...

This paper provides an extensive analysis of the predictive ability of financial volatility measures for economic activity. We construct monthly measures of aggregated and industry-level stock volatility, and bond market volatility from daily returns. We model log financial volatility as...

We analyze dynamics of the permanent and transitory components of the U.S. economic activity and the stock market obtained by multivariate dynamic factor modeling. We capture asymmetries over the phases of economic and stock market trends and cycles using independent Markov-switching processes....

We examine the dynamic effects of credit shocks using a large data set of U.S. economic and financial indicators in a structural factor model. The identified credit shocks, interpreted as unexpected deteriorations of credit market conditions, immediately increase credit spreads, decrease rates...

In this document we estimate credit and GDP cycles for three Latin-American economies and study their relation in the time and frequency domains. Cycles are estimated in order to analyze their medium and short-term frequencies. We find that short-term cycles are usually more volatile than...

"Leaning against the wind" – a tighter monetary policy than necessary for stabilizing inflation around the inflation target and unemployment around a long-run sustainable rate – has been justified as a way of reducing household indebtedness. In a recent paper Lars Svensson claims that this...

Are exogenous shocks to lending spreads in corporate credit markets a substantial source of macroeconomic fluctuations? An alternative explanation of the data is that borrowing costs respond endogenously to expectations of future default, driven by macroeconomic shocks. We investigate by...

This paper investigates the existence of spillovers from stock prices onto consumption and the interest rate for South Africa using a time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. In this regard, we estimate a three-variable TVP-VAR model comprising of real...

Our results shed light on the contribution of local and regional factors to the risk premium on the Greek stock index futures market. Building upon the stochastic discount factor model, we estimate a multivariate exponential GARCH-in-mean model to uncover the risk premium on the FTSE/ASE-20...