Gil-Alana, Luis; Moreno, Antonio; Gracia, Fernando Pérez de - School of Economics and Business Administration, … - 2011
This paper first shows that survey-based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in U.S. quarterly inflation out-of-sample prediction and that the term structure of survey-based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes...