We develop a novel measure of volatility pass-through to assess international propagation of output volatility shocks to macroeconomic aggregates, equity prices, and currencies. An increase in country's output volatility is associated with a decrease in its output, consumption, and net exports....

We develop a discrete-time real endowment economy featuring Epstein-Zin recursive utility and a Levy time-change subordinator, which represents a clock that connects business time to calendar time. This setup provides a convenient equilibrium framework for pricing non-Gaussian risks, where the...

We measure "good" and "bad" variance premia that capture risk compensations for the realized variation in positive and negative market returns, respectively. The two variance premium components jointly predict excess returns over the next 1 and 2 years with statistically significant positive...

Risk-neutral probabilities, observable from option prices, combine objective probabilities and risk adjustments across economic states. We consider a recursive-utility framework to separately identify objective probabilities and risk adjustments using only observed market prices. We find that a...

We use market data on corporate bonds and equities to measure the value of U.S. corporate assets and their payouts to investors. In contrast to per share equity dividends, total corporate payouts are very volatile, turn negative when corporations raise capital, and are acyclical. This challenges...

Does macroeconomic uncertainty increase or decrease aggregate growth and asset prices? To address this question, we decompose aggregate uncertainty into ‘good' and ‘bad' volatility components, associated with positive and negative innovations to macroeconomic growth. We document that in line...