This paper reinterprets Maganelli's (2009) idea of "Forecasting with Judgment" to obtain a dynamic algorithm for combining survey data and time series models for macroeconomic forecasting. Unlike existing combination approaches which typically assign weights to alternative forecasts, the...

In this paper, human capital investments are evaluated by assuming heterogeneous returns to schooling. We use the potential outcome approach to measure the causal effect of human capital investments on earnings as a continuous treatment effect. Empirical evidence is based on a sample of West...

This paper presents structural estimates for a bargaining model which nests the right-to-manage, the efficient wage bargaining, the seniority and the standard neoclassical labor demand model as special cases. In contrast to most existing models, our approach accounts for heterogeneous skill...

In this paper we propose a model for the conditional multivariate density of integer count variables defined on the set Z^n. Applying the concept of copula functions, we allow for a general form of dependence between the marginal processes which is able to pick up the complex nonlinear dynamics...

Quantification techniques are popular methods in empirical research to aggregate the qualitative predictions at the micro-level into a single figure. In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of various methods that are based on the qualitative predictions of financial experts for...

In this paper we model the dynamic multivariate density of discrete bid and ask quote changes and their associated depths. We account for the contemporaneous relationship between these trading marks by exploiting the concept of copula functions. Thereby we show how to model truncations of the...

Statistical disclosure limitation is widely used by data collecting institutions to provide safe individual data. However, the choice of the disclosure limitation method severely affects the quality of the data and limit their use for empirical research. In particular, estimators for nonlinear...

Data collecting institutions use a large range of masking procedures in order to protect data against disclosure. Generally, a masking procedure can be regarded as a kind of data filter that transforms the true data generating process. Such a transformation severely affects the quality of the...

The recent availability of large data sets covering single transactions on financial markets has created a new branch of econometrics which has opened up a new door of looking at the microstructure of financial markets and its dynamics. The specific nature of transaction data such as the...

This paper contributes to the growing literature in macroeconomics and finance on expectation formation and information processing by analyzing the relationship between expectation formation at the individual level and the prediction of macroeconomic aggregates. Using information from business...