The paper proposes a modelling approach for euro area goods and services trade volumes and prices on the basis of a break-down of trade data into their intra- and extra-area components. Using the evidence from the newly estimated trade equations, the paper gives new insights into two important...

Given the increased importance of …fiscal monitoring, this study amends the existing literature in the …field of intra-annual fi…scal data in two main dimensions. First, we use quarterly fi…scal data to forecast a very disaggregated set of …fiscal series at annual frequency. This makes...

This paper develops a factor model for forecasting inflation in the euro area. The model can handle variables with different timeliness, sample size and frequency. We show that the forecasts based on the factor model outperform nai¨ve random walk forecasts, a hard to beat benchmark for euro...