A new kind of mixture autoregressive model with GARCH errors is introduced and applied to the U.S. short-term interest rate. According to the diagnostic tests developed in the paper and further informal checks the model is capable of capturing both of the typical characteristics of the...

This paper proposes a model in which the removal of barriers to trade and factor mobility is associated with endogenous fragmentation of the value-added chain. Fragmentation is the outcome of cost competition - the profit-maximizing choice of cost structure by monopolistically competitive firms....

This paper derives new results on the effects of employing Taylor rules in economies that are subject to real market imperfections such as production externalities. Taylor rules that aggressively respond to output can eliminate sunspot equilibria that arise from the increasing returns. The paper...

We examine the impact of performance groups on the estimation of the relative importance of firm, industry and other effects on corporate performance. Performance groups comprise firms from the same industry with a similar performance over a longer period of time. We present a statistical method...

The third generation UMTS auction in Germany raised an enormous amount of revenue, and at the same time achieved a more competitive market structure than other UMTS auctions in Europe. The present paper explains the design of that auction, and presents a game theoretic explanation of observed...

This paper is an example of data mining in action. The database we are mining contains 1085 profiles of individuals who have downloaded the statistical software XploRe. Each profile contains the responses to an online questionnaire comprised of questions about such things as an individuals'...

This paper studies signs and reasons of decline of job stability in West Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel 1984-1997, we look at two measures for job stability. Based on repeated cross sectional data we first show that medium elapsed tenure declined for men. Secondly, we...

The use of asymptotic critical values in stationarity tests against the alternative of a unit rot process is known to lead to overrejections in finite samples when the considered process is stationary but highly persistent. We claim that in recent parametric tests this is caused by estimation...

In this paper bilateral models formalizing monthly growth of US imports and exports are employed to investigate the potential of nonlinear relationships linking exchange rate uncertainty and trade growth. Parametric linear and nonlinear as well as semiparametric time series models are evaluated...