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Probability and confidence : how to improve communication of uncertainty about uncertainty in intelligence analysis

Duke, Misty C. - In: Journal of behavioral decision making 37 (2024) 1, pp. 1-30

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014473595

The resolution of uncertainty in the value and probability domains

Lee, Eungik; Ngangoue, Kathleen M.; Schotter, Andrew - 2024

We compare preferences for temporal resolution when uncertainty is resolved over a probability rather than a value. In … whether values or probabilities define the main object of uncertainty. In our experiment, however, most subjects resolved …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014456336

Types of uncertainty and probability : some remarks

Dequech, David - In: Journal of Post Keynesian economics 46 (2023) 3, pp. 440-449

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014391547

The problem with probability : comment

Cantillo, Andres F. - In: Journal of Post Keynesian economics 46 (2023) 3, pp. 450-464

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014391549

Solution of the Ellsberg paradox by means of the principle of uncertain future

Harin, Alexander - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008

The principle of uncertain future: the probability of a future event contains an (hidden) uncertainty. The first … probability system of a future event is incomplete. The second consequence provides a solution of the incompleteness of systems of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835901

Measuring the Degree of Ambiguity about Probability: Experimental Evidence

Morone, Andrea; Ozdemir, Ozlem - Max-Planck-Institut für Ökonomik, Max-Planck-Gesellschaft - 2005

Different from previous studies that use a best estimate, interval, or sets of probabilities, we represent the degree of ambiguity through levels of information provided to subjects. The willingness to pay is higher when more amount of information is provided.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765194