We present a theory of determinants of sovereign debt stability on foreign and domestic markets. Besides the two traditional factors - debt size and output contractions, we highlight the role of the third factor: distortionary tax, which hinders the government's ability to freely raise revenues....

This paper delves into the dynamic impact of Ecuador's 2008 sovereign debt default on the subsequent performance of the country's bonds, specifically as measured by the Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI). Through a blend of qualitative and quantitative analyses, the paper develops a framework...

Sovereigns issue debt on both domestic and foreign markets and the two debts are uncorrelated in the data. Sovereigns default mostly selectively. We propose a theory to rationalize these observations. A government chooses the optimal combination of two debts to smooth consumption, which is...

We present a theory of determinants of sovereign debt stability on foreign and domestic markets. Besides the two traditional factors - debt size and output contractions, we highlight the role of the third factor: distortionary tax, which hinders the government’s ability to freely raise...

This paper investigates investor inattention as a plausible explanation for market reaction to repurchase announcements. We use prior turnover as the proxy for investor attention to examine the difference in stock price performance between low-attention stocks and high-attention stocks. We find...

Both behavioral biases and informational advantages can drive insider trades. We first document that U.S. corporate insiders anchor on the 52-week low (high) for stock purchases (sales). We then find that insider trades made when the stock price is far away from its anchor levels are more...

We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or "haircuts". Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the...

Using both the onset of the US-China trade war in 2018 and the most recent Russia-Ukraine war and associated trade tensions, we show a counterintuitive pattern in global trade. Namely, while the average firm trading with these nations significantly decreases their trade with these jurisdictions...

This paper examines the driving effect of economic policy uncertainty on bank systemic risk with a distinction between systemic linkage and bank tail risk. Using bank-level data of 25 economies during the period 2010-2020, we find consistent and robust evidence that policy uncertainty is...