We develop a public choice model of the International Monetary Fund in which credit and conditionality are simultaneously determined by the demand for, and supply of, IMF credit. A graphical analysis illustrates the comparative statics in response to various shocks. We apply the model to explain...

Using panel data for 68 countries over the period 1975-2002 this paper examines how IMF programs, disbursed loans, and compliance with conditionality affect the risk of currency crises and the outcome of such crises. Specifically, we investigate whether countries with previous IMF intervention...

This paper is devoted to one of the most urgent problems of Central Asian economies in transition, i.e. external debt and its sustainability within systemic transformation process. On the basis of vast current statistical data the problems of structure and dynamics of external debt are analysed...

At least since the early 1990s, the problem of Africa’s debt was a recurring theme in the development debate and many suggestions for debt relief have now been implemented. However, a thorough solution is hampered by the existence of multiple ways of scaling debt. This paper provides a...

This paper highlights the role of capital outflows in creating periods of turbulence by forcing emerging economies to raise massive funds abroad. First, we present stylised facts related to the capital outflows from the emerging economies. Then, we carry out a breakdown of the balance of...

Venezuela’s current growth is generally described as unsustainable, with various negative scenarios put forth, including spiraling debt, inflation, and balance of payments crises. However, these pessimistic forecasts have been far off the mark for most of the past decade. This paper looks at...

This paper studies the nature of spillover effects in bank lending flows from advanced to the emerging market economies and identifies specific channels through which such effects occur. We examine a panel data set of cross-border bank flows from 17 advanced to 28 emerging market economies in...

This paper is the third installment in a series (the first and second editions were in 2001 and 2005) that traces a long-term growth failure in most of the world's countries.

Emerging countries in many cases are more crisis-prone than highly developed industrialized countries. This is in many cases due to a weak or volatile financial sector. The best policy to strengthen crisis resistance is the building up of a sound financial position. A sound financial position of...

This paper shows stylized facts on the rather large retrenchment of cross-border lending by Euro-area banks into emerging markets. The clearest case is Asia where Euro-area banks have massively lost market share. The reason, however, is not only related to their retrenching but also to the surge...