Standard models explain urbanization by rural-urban migration in response to an (expected) urban-rural wage gap. The Green Revolution and rural poverty constitute rural push factors of migration. The Indus- trial Revolution and the urban bias are urban pull factors. This paper offers an...

Despite their explicit focus on reaching the poor, many community driven development (CDD) projects have been found to be only mildly pro-poor in their funding allocations. This paper presents evidence of an explanation that has been overlooked in the CDD literature to date: the requirement that...

In newly democratized and developing countries, political economy theory expects politicians to use budget defcits to engineer an election-timed boom, known as the political business cycle. In this paper, we challenge this view by incorporating the Önancial constraints faced by government into...

How does a shifting economic power balance between the United States and China affect the strategic choices of Latin American governments? During the last several decades, Latin America has often relied on a Western development model that aimed to attract global market capital. After excessive...

In this paper we present a multivariate analysis of the Federal Reserve’s forecasts. First, we evaluate the Fed’s forecasts of the ten major expenditure categories of real GDP. Second, we present a new methodology for evaluating multivariate forecasts. Finally, we use the same...

How does a shifting economic power balance between the United States and China affect the strategic choices of Latin American governments? During the last several decades, Latin America has often relied on a Western development model that aimed to attract global market capital. After excessive...

The influential contributions of DiNardo, Fortin, and Lemieux (1996), Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2009), Machado and Mata (2005), and Donald, Green, and Paarsch (2000) provide researchers with a useful toolbox to estimate counterfactual distributions of scalar random variables. These techniques...

Many theories link urbanization with industrialization; in partic- ular, with the production of tradable (and typically manufactured) goods. We document that the expected relationship between urbanization and the levelofindustrializationisnotpresentinasampleofdevelopingeconomies. The breakdown...

Antidumping proponents in the U.S. often argue that foreign firms use profits obtained behind home market barriers to "subsidize" "unfair" pricing abroad. This paper examines this "sanctuary market" hypothesis for antidumping petitions against U.S. manufacturing exporters. Econometric results...

This paper assesses the predictive power of variables that measure market tightness, such as seller's bargaining power and sale probabilities, on future home prices. Theoretical insights from a stylized search-and-matching model illustrate that such indicators can be associated with subsequent...