This paper estimates intergenerational mobility in education using data from 91 censuses in 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean spanning over half a century. It measures upward mobility as the likelihood that individuals will complete one educational stage more than their parents...

This paper conducts an exhaustive out-of-sample forecasting evaluation exercise for the monthly price of crude oil between 1992 and 2011. The idea is to identify the forecasting strategy that results in the “best” forecasts in terms of mean forecasting error. To this end, a wide variety of...

This paper analyzes the emerging economies sovereign spread, with emphasis on the impact of commodity prices. Using a panel data model, it tests the heterogeneity of this relationship, depending on the degree of exports concentration and distinguishes the impact of global activity on sovereign...

The impact on oil prices of geopolitical tensions and oil supply-side events is examined. Using a GARCH model on daily oil price data, we find that, when these events actually occur -10% frequency- the geopolitical events explain around 3/4 of daily oil returns forecasted by the model, and oil...

Inequality in Latin America fell substantially in the early 2000s. In this paper, we take advantage of administrative matched employee-employed data in Brazil, Chile and Ecuador to examine whether these inequality trends held in the formal sector, as well. We document a significant decrease in...