Despite the common reliance on numerical probability estimates in decision research and decision analysis, there is … considerable interest in the use of verbal probability expressions to communicate opinion. A method is proposed for obtaining and …. Response mode and payoff never interacted. Probability scores and their components were virtually identical for the two …

: (i) when different forms of probability forecast were required, and (ii) with and without the presence of contextual … feedback, as long as labels were provided. For directional probability forecasts, outcome feedback was not effective, even if …

hypotheses: (1) the confidence heuristic holds that more confidence increases credibility, and (2) the calibration hypothesis … asserts that overconfidence will backfire when others find out. Study 1 reveals that, consistent with the calibration …, accuracy, and calibration influence others. …

Recent psychological research has investigated how people assess the probability of an indicative conditional. Most … people give the conditional probability of q given p as the probability of if p then q. Asking about the probability of an …