Technical trading strategies make profits by identifying and exploiting patterns in market prices—patterns generated by the interaction of market participants. This paper examines model markets composed of traders using a range of trading rules, and identifies the ecologies under which...

The behavior and stability of over-the-counter markets is of central concern to regulators. Little is known, however, about how the structure of these markets determine their properties. In this paper we consider an over-the-counter market populated by boundedly rational heterogeneous traders in...

In the majority of democratic political systems, districts elect representatives, who form coalitions, which determine policies. In this paper we present a model which captures this process: A citizen-candidate model with multiple policy dimensions in which elected representatives endogenously...

Cooperative relations, within and between firms, play important roles in business. How to produce such relations, however, is less well understood. Building on work in evolutionary biology we examine the conditions under which group based incentives result in better performance than individual...

The paper analyses inflationary real effects in situation where there are frequent episodes of high inflation. It is conjectured with the increase in high inflation, and when differences between the expected and output-neutral inflation become large, output stimulation through inflationary...

Empirical evaluation of macroeconomic uncertainties and their use for probabilistic forecasting are investigated. A new weighted skew normal distribution which parameters are interpretable in relation to monetary policy outcomes and actions is proposed. This distribution is fitted to recursively...

The paper tackles the issue of possible misspecification in fitting skew normal distributions to empirical data. It is shown, through numerical experiments, that it is easy to choose a distribution which is different from this which actually generated the sample, if the minimum distance...

Issues related to classification, interpretation and estimation of inflationary uncertainties are addressed in the context of their application for constructing probability forecasts of inflation. It is shown that confusions in defining uncertainties lead to potential misunderstandings of such...