This paper presents new models for aggregate UK data on mortgage possessions (foreclosures) and mortgage arrears (payment delinquencies).  The innovations include the treatment of difficuly to observe variations in loan quality and shifts in forbearance policy by lenders, by common latent...

Forecasts are presented for the 12-month ahead US rate of inflation measured by the chain weighted personal consumer expenditure deflator, PC, and its three main components: non-durable goods, durable goods and services.  Monthly models are estimated for 1974 to 1999, and pseudo out-of-sample...

Official balance sheet estimates for the household sector are not currently available in South Africa. Yet with South Africa`s well-developed financial sector and deep capital markets, asset market channels are likely to be important determinants of aggregate consumer spending and saving,...

We build a 4-equation model of the inflation process in South Africa (which has recently adopted inflation targeting), including the exchange rate, consumer prices, producer price, and import prices. This provides useful information on the speed and extent of exchange rate pass-through, and...

South Africa’s recent adoption of inflation targeting increases the need for good forecasting models of inflation and models for understanding the monetary transmission mechanism. This paper presents multi-step models for inflation and output, four-quarters ahead. The inflation model has...

South Africa experienced substantial rises in the ratios of consumption and household debt to income from 1983, for which conventional explanations in terms of income, income expectations, interest rates and wealth prove inadequate. This paper emphasizes the role of substantial financial...

Economic conditions exert a strong influence on regional migration. On the one hand, strong labour market conditions, as exemplified by low unemployment rates and high earnings, draw migrants into regions. On the other hand, strong housing market conditions can prevent movement since expensive...

This paper investigates the bubbles hypothesis with a dynamic panel data model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003. The model consists of a system of inverted housing demand equations, incorporating spatial interactions and lags and relevant spatial parameter heterogeneity....