attain local stationarity and bounded mean values. The model is applied to the analysis of inflation dynamics. Allowing for …

This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy … environment. Using a panel of professional forecasters covering thirteen years of inflation targeting period from Turkey, we … present evidence on the behavioral shifts in the inflation expectations associated with evolving macroeconomic and policy …

while ARIMA model gives the most accurate forecast of twelve-month inflation in EU countries. The Holt-Winters (additive and … fact that the European Union has been implementing a policy of strict inflation targeting for a long time, so the ARIMA … models give the most accurate forecast of inflation future values. In the countries of the Western Balkans the targeting …

theoretical predictions and simulations are corroborated when forecasting aggregate US inflation pre- and post 1984 using … disaggregate sectoral data. - Aggregate forecasts ; disaggregate information ; forecast combination ; inflation …

We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The … model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence … curve indicate that current inflation also depends on past inflation although future expectations dominate. The implied …