emerging market country by taking Turkey as a case. For this purpose we compare the forecasting performance of Phillips curve …

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard bench marks in forecasting U.S. inflation … predictors) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest … statistically significant forecasting gains are achieved with a model that forecasts the lowest frequency component of inflation …

; (iv) newer generation Phillips curve models with several time-varying features are a promising avenue for forecasting …

utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample inflation dynamics …-sample, while inflation expectations dominate medium-to-long-run cycles, energy prices dominate short cycles and business …-to-medium cycles once expectations became anchored. While statistically significant, unemployment is not economically relevant for any …

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once …) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest statistically … significant forecasting gains are achieved with a model that forecasts the lowest frequency component of inflation (corresponding …

factors predominantly drive core goods price changes. When comparing forecasting performance, we find that both the aggregate …

categories react to the output gap. According to our expectations the categories which are mostly linked to the output gap are …

forecasting results to results from Monte Carlo simulations of DGPs that either assume stability or allow breaks in the DGP. This …

policy is not implemented in the same way and the NNAR models are better for inflation forecasting. …