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This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010303756
This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010368524
contribute to anchoring of expectations about nominal variables; its effects on disagreement about real variables are moderate. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420834
This paper uses a panel VAR (PVAR) approach to estimating, analysing and forecasting price dynamics in four different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011310799
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340986
results of the model's forecasting performance suggest that this model can be a useful analytical tool in the process of … to MAKPAM and enriches the set of tools for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in NBRM. In this paper we highlight …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012109773
methodological contributions, especially with regard to economic forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012157628
variables, but also by tilting to expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. For Phillips curves, averaging …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605254
finance; for such tasks as pattern reorganization, and time series forecasting, have dramatically increased. Many central … banks use forecasting models based on ANN methodology for predicting various macroeconomic indicators, like inflation, GDP … ANN model with conventional univariate time series forecasting models such as AR(1) and ARIMA based models and observed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011112612
This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a real-time dataset synchronized with the Fed's Greenbook projections. Conditioning the model forecasts on the Greenbook nowcasts leads to forecasts that are as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010954828