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Pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of DSGE models with and without financial frictions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010936514
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010938565
suggest that credible monetary policy contributes to anchoring of expectations about inflation and interest rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011009937
This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a real-time dataset synchronized with the Fed's Greenbook projections. Conditioning the model forecasts on the Greenbook nowcasts leads to forecasts that are as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010954828
This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010955291
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958731
This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009422087
variables in the model, rather than just on future paths as it is usually done in the conditional forecasting literature. The … forecasting densities of a BVAR and a DSGE model on information about the marginal densities of future oil prices. The results …-inflation over the considered forecasting horizon. Finally, a real-time forecasting exercise yields that introducing market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013463266
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014288359
The purpose of the article is to evaluate the forecasting performance of dynamic factor models in forecasting inflation …. Such models are very often successfully used for forecasting. Employing several factors instead of a large number of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113479