Short-termism need not breed informational price ine fficiency even when generating Beauty Contests. We demonstrate this claim in a two-period market with persistent liquidity trading and risk-averse, privately informed, short-term investors and find that prices reflect average expectations...

The empirical literature suggests that the limit order book contains information that might be used by the specialist to his own advantage. I develop a model where there is a strategic specialist who competes against a limit order book and has information about supply. The presence of a...

I provide a novel framework for machine learning models to ingest quantified soft information during the life of a loan, using cutting-edge natural language processing techniques on salient unstructured text. This soft information, from servicer call transcripts, is not restricted to mere...

This paper evaluates the performance of machine learning methods in forecasting stock returns. Compared to a linear benchmark model, interactions and non-linear effects help improve predictive performance. But machine learning models must be adequately trained and tuned to overcome the high...

Using four different asset pricing models to estimate the residual returns, I show empirically that there are no material differences in the statistical and economic significance between idiosyncratic momentum strategies based on different asset-pricing models. I also show that idiosyncratic...

In this paper, I develop a model in which risk-averse investors possess private information regarding both a stock's expected payoff and its risk. These investors trade in the stock and a derivative whose payoff is driven by the stock's risk. In equilibrium, the derivative is used to speculate...

We uncover a large and significant low-minus-high rank effect for commodities across two centuries. There is nothing anomalous about this anomaly, nor is it clear how it can be arbitraged away. Using nonparametric econometric methods, we demonstrate that such a rank effect is a necessary...

This paper proposes a new double-question survey method that elicits information about how individuals.subjective belief valuations are compared and related to their price expectations. An individual respondent is presented with two sets of questions, one that asks about his/her belief regarding...

Through extending a standard Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) noisy rational expectations economy by a heterogeneous signal structure with signal-specific differences in uncertainty, we show that price momentum as well as reversal are not intrinsically at odds with rational behavior. Differences in...