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We estimate real consumption's growth rate and volatility in light of three new facts documenting geographic differences in consumption: (1) consumers in separate markets buy different products, (2) a product's market share varies geographically conditional on relative price, and (3) product...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012932589
Current HICP measurement practices produce an upward bias of about one-ninth of a percentage point in German inflation due to changing consumption being disregarded and the preliminary data being used in the compilation of expenditure weights. The statistical uncertainty produced by these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236388
To forecast an aggregate, we propose adding disaggregate variables, instead of combining forecasts of those disaggregates or forecasting by a univariate aggregate model. New analytical results show the effects of changing coefficients, mis-specification, estimation uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013147953
This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is … Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is derived, and the limiting behavior of the aggregation error is investigated … which "observed" inflation persistence at the aggregate level is due to aggregation and/or common unobserved factors. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130496
of overall HICP (direct approach) and whether the aggregation of country forecasts improves upon the forecast of the euro … the differences are only marginal for the countries. The aggregation of country forecasts does not seem to improve upon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319325
property of consistency in aggregation. This property, however, is indispensable for economic studies that attempt to …. The present paper introduces a thoroughly motivated formal definition of consistency in aggregation and proves that …, contrary to general perception, the three superlative price indices can be considered as consistent in aggregation. Furthermore …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012012496
that the more aggregate the data, the closer the distribution to perfect staggering. This result holds for both aggregation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011618131
Current HICP measurement practices produce an upward bias of about one-ninth of a percentage point in German inflation due to changing consumption being disregarded and the preliminary data being used in the compilation of expenditure weights. The statistical uncertainty produced by these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012489562
This paper deals with the analysis of price-setting in U.S. manufacturing industries. Recent studies have heavily criticized the ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) to fit aggregate inflation [see, e.g., Rudd and Whelan, 2006, Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009399040
Aggregation of international prices in empirical work is generally based on well known index number formulas. However …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009493365