The Fed's policy rule shifts during different phases of the business cycle, particularly in relation to monetary easing and tightening phases. This finding is established through a dynamic mixture model, which estimates regime-dependent Taylor-type rules using US quarterly data from 1960 to...

This paper investigates how different types of monetary policy have affected house prices in Finland, a small euro area economy that has experienced pronounced business cycles over time. The analyses are carried out using the Bayesian structural vector autoregressive approach. Monetary policy...

The Fed's policy rule switches during the different phases of the business cycle. This finding is established using a dynamic mixture model to estimate regime-dependent Taylor-type rules on US quarterly data from 1960 to 2021. Instead of exogenously partitioning the data based on tenures of the...

This paper explores time variation in the dynamic effects of technology shocks on U.S. output, prices, interest rates as well as real and nominal wages. The results indicate considerable time variation in U.S. wage dynamics that can be linked to the monetary policy regime. Before and after the...

Our paper follows the "Time Varying Parameter VAR with Stochastic Volatility" (TVP VAR) approach developed by Primiceri (2005): Bayesian estimation with time varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. Our paper contributes to the literature by examining if the impact of monetary and...

Twenty years after the introduction of the euro, this Weekly Report uses an empirical analysis to assess the performance of monetary policy in the EMU founding states. It is often claimed that the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) cannot outperform its national predecessors, as...

Zwanzig Jahre nach Gründung des europäischen Währungsraum zieht dieser Wochenbericht mittels einer empirischen Analyse Bilanz. Eine oft gehörte These besagt, dass die Geldpolitik der Europäischen Zentralbank nur schlechter sein kann als die ihrer nationalen Vorgänger, weil die Länder der...

Forecasts of inflation in the United States since the mid eighties have had smaller errors than in the past, but those conditional on commonly used variables cannot consistently beat the ones from univariate models. This paper shows through simple modifications to the classical monetary model...

This paper compares the role of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in advanced and emerging economies. Using a model with a hierarchical structure we capture the variability of GDP response to policy shocks both between and within the groups of advanced and emerging countries. Our results provide...

Modern OCA theory has developed different conclusions on when forming a currency union is beneficial. An important pragmatic question in this context is: Did delegating monetary policy to the ECB increase stress in the individual euro area countries? An SVAR analysis reveals that monetary stress...