EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The short-term outlook has improved and program implementation remains on track, notwithstanding another adverse Constitutional Court ruling. Stronger domestic demand is supporting a pick-up in activity and lower unemployment. A broad-based recovery in sentiment has led to a...

In this paper, we analyze how lack of credibility and transparency of monetary and fiscal policies undermines the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to isolate the economy from commodity price fluctuations. We develop a general equilibrium model for a commodity-exporting economy where macro...

KEY ISSUES Context. Growth continues to strengthen, although the recovery is not yet broad-based. External and fiscal vulnerabilities have risen: private non-debt creating capital flows have slowed, and could leave the reserve path increasingly driven by an accumulation of external public debt;...

Institutions aimed at constraining policy discretion to promote sound fiscal policies are once again at the forefront of the policy debate. Interest in “fiscal councils,” independent watchdogs active in the public debate, has grown rapidly in recent years. This paper presents the first...

This paper studies fiscal policy effects in developing countries with external debt and sovereign default risks. State-dependent distributions of fiscal limits are simulated based on macroeconomic uncertainty and fiscal policy specifications. The analysis shows that expected future revenue plays...

This paper elaborates Bolivia's fiscal transparency assessment report. The purpose of this IMF report is to facilitate countries in analyzing the fiscal situation through the appropriate basic, good, and advanced practices to identify which areas might benefit from reforms. These reforms intend...

This paper examines the effect of stabilization funds on the volatility of government expenditure in resource-rich countries. Using a panel data set of 68 resource-rich countries over 1988–2012, the results find that the existence of stabilization funds contributes to smoothing government...