We construct a simple firm-based model of global interdependence. We show how extremely strong statistical correlations can naturally develop between countries even if the interconnections between those countries remain very weak. Potential policy implications of this result are also discussed.

During World War II Americans were asked to salvage a long list of materials for the war effort including paper, tin, iron and steel, rubber, and even silk stockings and cooking fat. Stories about the salvage drives have become a staple in both popular and scholarly histories of the home front,...

The main objective of this paper is to propose a feasible, model free estimator of the predictive density of integrated volatility. In this sense, we extend recent papers by Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), and by Andersen, Bollerslev and Meddahi (2004, 2005), who address the...

This paper addresses the notion that many fractional I(d) processes may fall into the "empty box" category, as discussed in Granger (1999). We present ex ante forecasting evidence based on an updated version of the absolute returns series examined by Ding, Granger and Engle (1993) that suggests...

The United States is often taken to be the exemplar of the benefits of a monetary union. Since 1788 Americans, with the exception of the Civil War years, have been able to buy and sell goods, travel, and invest within a vast area without ever having to be concerned about changes in exchange...

We examine the importance of delegation for Congressional policy-making, focusing particularly on U.S. trade policy. We present a model of decision-making where legislators use trade policy to maximize their districts' welfare. We show that this simple model does a remarkable job explaining...

We provide analytical formulae for the asymptotic bias (ABIAS) and mean squared error (AMSE) of the IV estimator, and obtain approximations thereof based on an asymptotic scheme which essentially requires the expectation of the first stage F-statistic to converge to a finite (possibly small)...

We examine the upward labor income mobility of men and women in Germany using the GSOEP Cross National Equivalent File. Women have greater overall income mobility. However, utilizing a measure of upward income mobility and calculating the posterior probability that men's upward income mobility...

The Enron Corporation went from a $65 billion dollar market capitalization to bankruptcy in just 16 months. Using statistical techniques for extracting the implied probability distributions built into option prices, I examine the market's expectation of Enron's risk of collapse. I find that the...