We present the results of an extensive study on modeling and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) of electricity spot prices. We consider a vast array of models including linear regressions, monthly dummies, sinusoidal decompositions and wavelet smoothers. We find that in terms...

We modify a two-dimensional variant of a two-state non-linear voter model and apply it to understand how new ideas, products or behaviors spread throughout the society in time. In particular, we want to find answers to two important questions in the field of diffusion of innovation: Why does the...

Using an agent-based modeling approach we show how personal attributes, like conformity or indifference, impact the opinions of individual electricity consumers regarding switching to innovative dynamic tariff programs. We also examine the influence of advertising, discomfort of usage and the...

This paper proposes an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to study the diffusion and adoption of dynamic electricity tariffs. We discuss the difference between opinions and decisions of electricity consumers regarding dynamic pricing. By means of a simple ABM, we provide a plausible explanation...

Recently, Nowotarski et al. (2013) have found that wavelet-based models for the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) are not only better in extracting the LTSC from a series of spot electricity prices but also significantly more accurate in terms of forecasting these prices up to a year ahead...

The book is divided into four chapters. The first one introduces the structure of deregulated, competitive electricity markets with the power pools and power exchanges as the basic marketplaces for price discovery. Chapter 2 reviews the so-called stylized facts of selected power markets. In...

Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance presents ready-to-use solutions, theoretical developments and method construction for many practical problems in quantitative finance and insurance. Written by practitioners and leading academics in the field, this book offers a unique combination of...

CONTENTS: 1.Introduction; 2.Financial market; 3.Securities; 4.Forwards, futures and options; 5.Financial mathematics of discrete models; 6.Financial mathematics of continuous models; 7.Term structure modeling; 8.Construction and pricing of exotic derivatives; 9.Statistics of financial markets;...

CONTENTS: 1.Introduction; 2.Financial market; 3.Electricity market; 4.Power exchange; 5.Forwards, futures and options; 6.Risk management; 7.Software (SPIS TRESCI: 1.Wprowadzenie; 2.Rynek finansowy; 3.Rynek energii elektrycznej; 4.Gielda energii elektrycznej; 5.Kontrakty terminowe; 6.Zarzadzanie...

Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance presents ready-to-use solutions, theoretical developments and method construction for many practical problems in quantitative finance and insurance. Written by practitioners and leading academics in the field this book offers a unique combination of...