Using a logistic model of cumulative cases and deaths it would soon become possible to give estimates to the final numbers of cases and deaths that are likely on account of COVID19, for countries which have gone through about 60+ days since the first cases were recorded. Such estimates assume...

Understanding who in the population is psychologically resilient in the face of major life events, and who is not, is important for policies that target reductions in disadvantage. In this paper we construct a measure of adult resilience, document its distribution, and test its predictability by...

It has become customary to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) with GMM using a large instrument set that includes lags of variables that are ad hoc to the model. Researchers have also conventionally used real unit labor cost (RULC) as the proxy for real marginal cost, even though...

Why do statisticians (econometricians, economists, financial analysts, etc.) continue to incompletely identify the algebraic/geometric structure of the multi-variate data series they profess to analyze, and instead continue to publish the results of incomplete, prejudiced and biased...

As a unified discipline, econometrics is still relatively young and has been transforming and expanding very rapidly over the past few decades. Major advances have taken place in the analysis of cross sectional data by means of semi-parametric and non-parametric techniques. Heterogeneity of...

In econometrics, long memory models for variance modeling like FIGARCH or FIAPARCH are characterized by a Fractional Differencing term. In order to estimate and apply these models, the infinite MacLaurin expansion of the differencing term has to be truncated at a certain level. We transfer the...

We develop a fundamental law of active management based on cross-section factor models for residual returns where the latter have unconditional mean zero and the factor exposures have zero mean and unit variance. Under our model framework the factor returns are cross-sectional information...

In this supplemental article, we introduce some useful results in spectral theory and perturbation theory. Some of the results are well-established. We briefly review them for the purpose of easy reference. We derive a novel bound for the perturbation of eigenprojections, which plays a key role...

We identify the individual resources that predicted psychological resilience during the COVID-19 lockdown. Using UK data, we compare psychological distress observed before COVID-19 with distress measured in April, May, and June 2020. After matching respondents on key characteristics, we find...