This paper investigates the role played by non-financial firms in Japanese corporate financing. We find that non-financial firms are an important source of credit for both small and large firms in Japan. We also document that adverse real and financial shocks have similar effects on small and...

The viability of forward guidance as a monetary policy tool depends on the horizon over which it can be communicated and its influence on expectations over that horizon. We develop and estimate a model of imperfect central bank communications and use it to measure how effectively the Fed has...

This paper studies the effects of FOMC forward guidance. We begin by using high frequency identification and direct measures of FOMC private information to show that puzzling responses of private sector forecasts to movements in federal funds futures rates on FOMC announcement days can be...

This paper studies the effects of FOMC forward guidance. We begin by using high frequency identification and direct measures of FOMC private information to show that puzzling responses of private sector forecasts to movements in federal funds futures rates on FOMC announcement days can be...

The viability of forward guidance as a monetary policy tool depends on the horizon over which it can be communicated and its influence on expectations over that horizon. We develop and estimate a model of imperfect central bank communications and use it to measure how effectively the Fed has...

This paper provides an overview of the evolution of macroeconomic thought from 1936, the year John Maynard Keynes published his general theory of employment, interest and money to the year 2010. It explores the reasons for the extension of the business cycle during the postwar period. The paper...

with a previously unpublished paper by the author and a new foreword by Edward Glaeser Fischer Black was known for his brilliance as well as for his sometimes controversial opinions. Highly respected for his scholarly writings in finance, with this book he moved into different territory,...

The paper analysis the main features of crisis phenomena in the early 21st century taking into consideration the overlapping stages of different types of business cycle (short and medium terms). The authors evaluate different kinds of economic cycles from the viewpoint of both history and...

This paper analyzes the causes and implications of recent financial crises. Financial crises in general lead to changes in both theory and practice of economics. The paper takes an historical overview. The global consensus of economic theory during the 20th century is discussed. The paper...