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Do Students Expect Compensation for Wage Risk?
Schweri, Juerg; Wolter, Stefan C.; Hartog, Joop - Institut für Strategie und Unternehmensökonomik … - 2008
-ante, suggesting that students use very little private information about their wage prospects. Expectations appear much more anchored …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005042515
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Optimistic, but not in Control: Life-Orientation and the Theory of mixed Control
Urbig, Diemo; Monsen, Erik - Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009
Why are some people more optimistic about their life than others? Literature on locus of control suggests that optimism is associated with the belief that one’s life outcomes are controlled by internal factors, such as ability, instead of external factors, such as powerful others or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051053
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Market Expectations and Currency Crises: Theory and Empirics
Guimaraes, Bernardo - Society for Economic Dynamics - SED - 2005
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005027229
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Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach.
Gilboa, I.; Schmeidler, D. - Foerder Institute for Economic Research, Eitan Berglas … - 2001
A predictor is asked to rank eventualities according to their plausibility, based on past cases. We assume that she can form a ranking given any memory that consists of finitely many past cases. Mild consistency requirements on these rankings imply that they have a numerical representation via a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005675418
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Why Do Pooled Forecasts Do Better Than Individual Forecasts Ex Post?
Nocetti, Diego; Smith, William T. - In: Economics Bulletin 4 (2006) 36, pp. 1-7
introduction of model uncertainty into the formation of expectations can account for the regularity. We conjecture that agents … learn in a Bayesian way, using an optimally designed combination of forecasts to form expectations. When these expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005416954
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The Properties of Market-Based and Survey Forecasts for Different Data Releases
Lanne, Markku - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2007
We compare the accuracy of the survey forecasts and forecasts implied by economic binary options on the U.S. nonfarm payroll change. These options are available for a number of ranges of the announced figure, and each pays $1 if the released nonfarm payroll change falls in the given range. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005621898
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Adaptive Interactive Profit Expectations and Small World Networks
Bell, William Paul - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008
The aim of this paper is to simulate profit expectations as an emergent property using an agent based model. The paper … builds upon adaptive expectations, interactive expectations and small world networks, combining them into a single adaptive … interactive profit expectations model (AIE). Understanding the diffusion of interactive expectations is aided by using a network …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010601616
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The structure of optimism: “Controllability affects the extent to which efficacy beliefs shape outcome expectancies”
Urbig, Diemo; Monsen, Erik - In: Journal of Economic Psychology 33 (2012) 4, pp. 854-867
In this article we theoretically develop and empirically test an integrative conceptual framework linking dispositional optimism as general outcome expectancy to general efficacy beliefs about internal (self) and external (instrumental social support and chance) factors as well as to general...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011051386
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Anticipated vs. Unanticipated House Price Movements and Transaction Volume
Arslan, Yavuz; Kanik, Birol; Köksal, Bülent - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014
Using data from England and Wales, we analyze the relationship between house prices and transaction volume (number of houses sold) and find that there is a negative relationship. When we decompose price changes into anticipated and unanticipated components we find that while anticipated house...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011112594
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Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk
Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Wolfers, Justin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006
market-based measures of expectations are similar to survey-based forecasts although the market-based measures somewhat more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656457