For hundred years the future was occupying the persons. The ancient Greeks, the Romans, the Egyptians, the Indians, the Chinese and other great ancient cultures, but also the modern, as the English, Germans and the Americans and with the help of the development of technology and computers they...

Edgeworth expansions to the null distributions of three classical test statistics in the multivariate regression model were derived by Rothenberg (1977) and Phillips (1984) with the purpose of obtaining size-corrected critical values for such tests. We combine their results with the results of...

The universal method for testing linearity against smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) alternatives is the linearization of the STAR model around the null nuisance parameter value, and performing F-tests on polynomial regressions in the spirit of the RESET test. Polynomial regressors,...

We consider the power of unit root tests for different deviations of the initial observation from the deterministic component of the series. Following recent work highlighting the relative power performance of extant tests, we propose a new procedure based on a data-dependent weighted average of...

Duration dependent Markov-switching VAR (DDMS-VAR) models are time series models with data generating process consisting in a mixture of two VAR processes, which switches according to a two-state Markov chain with transition probabilities depending on how long the process has been in a state. In...

Ce papier présente l'estimation de fonctions de production éducationnelle à partir de l'échantillon national de PISA 2000 pour la Suisse. En utilisant la spécification économétrique favorisée par le modèle Box-Cox (1964), les résultats montrent que l'intégration de l'élève dans son...

In static single equation cointegration regression models the OLS estimator will have a non-standard distribution unless regressors are strictly exogenous. In the literature a number of estimators have been suggested to deal with this problem, especially by the use of semi-nonparametric...

This paper focuses on the observed empirical relationship between fiscal rules and budget deficits, and examines whether this correlation is driven by an omitted variable, namely voter preferences. We make use of two different estimation methods to capture voter preferences in a panel of Swiss...

This papers describes an estimator for a standard state-space model with coefficients generated by a random walk that is statistically superior to the Kalman filter as applied to this particular class of models. Two closely related estimators for the variances are introduced: A maximum...