The government's Economic and Fiscal Strategy Report (EFSR), published on 11 June, set out its fiscal strategy and its overall spending plans for the years ahead. Strategically, the government stressed the distinction between cur rent and capital spending and committed itself to borrowing no...

Economic forecasts are usually presented as point estimates, despite the margin of uncertainty which surrounds them. In November 1995 the National Institute began to present estimates of the probability of the government's inflation target being met and of there being a fall in GDP. This article...

Economic forecasts are usually presented as point estimates, despite the margin of uncertainty which surrounds them. In November 1995 the National Institute began to present estimates of the probability of the government's inflation target being met and of there being a fall in GDP. This article...

The government's Economic and Fiscal Strategy Report (EFSR), published on 11 June, set out its fiscal strategy and its overall spending plans for the years ahead. Strategically, the government stressed the distinction between cur rent and capital spending and committed itself to borrowing no...