This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks in an international vector autoregression. Using high-frequency data on the prices of eurodollar contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of the FOMC-day Federal Reserve policy decision on...

This paper empirically examines the relationship between the credit risk of Toyota, Nissan and Honda keiretsu-affiliated firms and the credit risk of the respective parent company. As credit spread data for keiretsu-affiliated firms were not available we create a keiretsu default index, as a...

Economic policies are known to have different effects on the economy depending on the size of policy changes and on business cycle conditions. For example, monetary policy might be more stimulative in recessions and around turning points in the business cycle than during expansions. Such...

A body of recent work suggests commonly–used VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. These methods include...

The foundation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) is a model of price setting with nominal rigidities that implies that the dynamics of inflation are well explained by the evolution of real marginal costs. In this paper, we analyze whether this is a structurally invariant relationship....

In this paper we introduce identifying restrictions into a Markov-switching vector autoregression model. We define a separate set of impulse responses for each Markov regime to show how fundamental disturbances affect the variables in the model dependent on the regime. We go to illustrate the...

In this paper, we consider whether there is statistical evidence for a causal relationship between federal government expenditures and growth in real per-capita GDP in the United States, using available data going back to 1792. After studying the time-series properties of these variables for...

This study examines the importance of team success for attendance for Major League Baseball teams. Winning and attendance go together for most baseball teams, but the direction of causation is not obvious. Winning could lead to greater attendance as fans want to see a winner; an increase in...