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Does the federal funds rate respond to shocks when aggregate reserves are in the trillions of dollars? Has banks’ demand for reserves moved over time? We provide a structural time-varying estimate of the slope of the reserve demand curve over 2010-21. We estimate a time-varying vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013406303
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014547195
We find evidence that bank capital matters for the distribution of future GDP growth but not its central tendency. Growth in the aggregate bank capital ratio compresses the tails of expected GDP growth, a relationship that is particularly robust in reducing the probability of the worst GDP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014258590
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Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but also in the Euro Area. In comparison, the inflationary impact of adverse supply shocks was less pronounced, even though these shocks significantly constrained economic activity....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056186
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015071226
Does the federal funds rate respond to shocks when aggregate reserves are in the trillions of dollars? Has banks' demand for reserves moved over time? We provide a structural time-varying estimate of the slope of the reserve demand curve over 2010-21. We estimate a time-varying vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013257201
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013186690
Data, data, data . . . Economists know it well, especially when it comes to monitoring macroeconomic conditions—the basis for making informed economic and policy decisions. Handling large and complex data sets was a challenge that macroeconomists engaged in real-time analysis faced long before...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012942980
In this paper we extract latent factors from a large cross-section of commodity prices, including fuel and non-fuel commodities. We decompose each commodity price series into a global (or common) component, block-specific components and a purely idiosyncratic shock. We find that the bulk of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943325