We study the political consequences of inflation surprises, focusing on votes for extremist and populist parties in 365 elections in 18 advanced economies since 1948. Inflation surprises are regularly followed by a substantial increase in vote shares of extremist, anti-system, and populist...

Lobbying activities are important to the promotion of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). I quantify the influence of lobbying on ratification probability of FTA by constructing a novel dataset containing all lobbying activities about FTAs in the United States. I setup a contest model of lobbying...

The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is the largest since the US imposed the Smoot-Hawley tariffs in the 1930s and was still raging when he left office. We analyze how the trade war impacted the 2020 US Presidential election. Our results highlight the political salience of the...

We assess the capacity of gerrymandering to undermine the will of the people in a representative democracy. Citizens have political positions represented on a spectrum, and electoral maps separate people into districts. We show that unrestrained gerrymandering can severely distort the...

We report results from the first experimental study of round-robin tournaments. In our experiment, we investigate how the prize structure affects the intensity, fair-ness, and dynamic behavior in sequential round-robin tournaments with three players. We compare tournaments with a second prize...

We examine how political instability (PI) affects firms’ product innovation and the strategies that firms can employ in response to PI. We argue that while higher levels of PI influence firms’ innovation negatively, greater international exposure (through foreign ownership and exporting) can...

This paper explores the implications of voter loss-aversion and imperfect recall for the dynamicsof electoral competition in a simple Downsian model of repeated elections. We first establish a benchmark result: when the voters' reference point is forward-looking, there are a continuum of...

This paper introduces a politico-economic model with a welfare state and immigration. In this model, policies on taxes and immigration are determined through a plurality voting system. While many studies of fiscal implications of immigration argue that relaxing immigration policies can...

Are preferences for reforms driven by individuals’ own endowments or beliefs? To address this question, we conducted a cross-country survey on people’s opinions on employment protection legislation—an area where reform has proven to be difficult and personal interests are at stake. We find...

This paper investigates the dynamic impact of natural resource discoveries on government debt sustainability. We use a ‘natural experiment’ framework in which the timing of discoveries is treated as an exogenous source of within-country variation. We combine data on government debt, fiscal...