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Forecast errors for inflation decline monotonically with both verbal and quantitative IQ in a large and representative male population. Within individuals, in expectations and perceptions are autocorrelated only for men above the median by IQ (high-IQ men). High-IQ men's forecast revisions are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893809
Forecast errors for inflation decline monotonically with both verbal and quantitative IQ in a large and representative male population. Within individuals, inflation expectations and perceptions are autocorrelated only for men above the median by IQ (high-IQ men). High-IQ men's forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894212
This paper assesses the links between money, credit, house prices, and economic activity in industrialized countries over the last three decades. The analysis is based on a fixed-effects panel vector autoregression, estimated using quarterly data for 17 industrialized countries spanning the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758999
Goodhart and Hoffman aim to examine causal and other links between house prices, liquidity, and activity, and this note comments on their results. One part of the mechanism is via wealth-but arguably house-price changes have little net impact on wealth, although there are collateral effects. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759001
Unconventional fiscal policy uses announcements of future increases in consumption taxes to generate inflation expectations and accelerate consumption expenditure. It is budget neutral and time consistent. We exploit a unique natural experiment for an empirical test of the effectiveness of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972087
The empirical effectiveness of economic policies that operate theoretically through similar channels differs substantially. We document this fact by comparing an easy-to-grasp expectations-based policy, unconventional fiscal policy, with a policy whose implications are harder to understand by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861381
"Leaning against the wind" - a tighter monetary policy than necessary for stabilizing inflation around the inflation target and unemployment around a long-run sustainable rate - has been justified as a way of reducing household indebtedness. In a recent paper Lars Svensson claims that this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013052303
The turn of century long period of sustained growth with low and stable inflation let the economic profession and the public opinion to think that the right theoretical foundation for macroeconomic policy had been found. However the Great Crisis of 2008 indicates a spectacular failure of this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056398
The current consensus in macroeconomics, or New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS), is based on dynamically stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) modeling with a RBC core to which nominal rigidities are added by way of imperfect competition. The strategy is to minimize the frictions that are required...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056401
The paper examines changes in the Bulgarian economy following the global financial and economic crisis of 2008. The discussion is primarily based on the behavior of economic agents in the crisis – households and companies. The paper also seeks to address the changes in the external and fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012985515