This paper shows that oil price changes, measured as short-term futures returns, are a strong predictor of excess stock returns at short horizons. Ours is a leading variable for the business cycle and exhibits low persistence which avoids the ctitious long-horizon predictability associated to...

We build an equilibrium model to disentangle industry-specific from business cycle effects of oil on stock returns. In our model oil is considered as an input factor for production and also as a macro variable. We estimate the model for 13 industries, including the oil industry. Our results...

This paper finds that the long-term co-movement of commodity prices is driven by economic relationships, such as production, substitution, and complementary relationships. Such relationships imply that the convenience yield of a given commodity depends on its relative scarcity with respect to...

We study the consumption and hedging strategy of an oil-importing developing country that faces multiple crude oil shocks. In our model, developing countries have two particular characteristics: their economies are mainly driven by natural resources and their technologies are less e cient in...

We use a general equilibrium model of a monetary economy to understand the economics behind the correlation between in nation and oil futures returns. Oil is used as both, an input to the production of capital and as a consumption good. We estimate our model using maximum likelihood with the...