Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, rather than deterministic, so that their expected accuracy can be assessed. We review three main methods to compute probabilistic forecasts, namely time series...

In this paper, we analyze seasonality of deaths by age and cause in the U.S. using public use files for the years 1994 to 1998 by the methods of regression and a variation of Census Method II. We answer the following questions: For each age cohort, how much does each cause of death contribute to...

We investigate the determinants of geographical distances to parents. We focus on the role of family members who live outside the household (the parents themselves, and siblings), and on the distinction between the effects of life events and effects related to the timing with which these events...

Interdisciplinary studies that draw on long-term, global population projections often make limited use of projection results, due at least in part to the historically opaque nature of the projection process. We present a guide to such projections aimed at researchers and educators who would...

Simple models for the failure (mortality) rate change point are considered. The relationship with the mean residual lifetime function change point problem is discussed. It is shown that when the change point is random, the observed failure (mortality) rate can be obtained via a specific mixture...

The notion of repeated minimal repair is analyzed and applied to modeling the lifesaving procedure of organisms. Under certain assumptions the equivalence between demographic lifesaving model and reliability shock model is proved. Both of these models are based on the non-homogeneous Poisson...

The mortality rates are steadily declining with time. The remaining lifetime for e.g. 65 years old person even 20-30 years ago was substantially smaller than nowadays. Therefore, the age correspondence problem for populations in different mortality regimes is of interest. A simple solution,...

-

Significant changes in the propensity to marry, together with baby booms, busts and migrations shape the marriage market. Big changes in the level of fertility may affect, some decades later, the opportunities of marriage of eligible individuals, creating a marriage squeeze. Italy provides an...

Competing views exist concerning the impact of geographical mobility on childbearing patterns. Early research shows that internal migrants largely exhibit fertility levels dominant in their childhood environment, while later studies find migrants’ fertility to resemble more closely that of...