Was the high inflation of the 1970s mostly due to incomplete information about the structure of the economy (an unavoidable mistake as suggested by Orphanides, 2000)? Or, to weak reaction to expected inflation and/or excessive policy activism that led to indeterminacies (a policy mistake, a...

The increased spending on security by the public and private sectors in response to September 11 could have important effects on the U.S. economy. Sizable government expenditures, for example, could trigger a rise in the cost of capital and wages and a reduction in investment and employment in...

The Asia crisis was originally expected to affect the U.S. economy adversely, mainly through reduced exports to, and increased imports from, the crisis countries. However, U.S. GDP growth in 1998, at 4.3 percent, was surprisingly strong. This article examines the effect of the crisis on the U.S....

The authors develop indexes of leading economic indicators for New York State and New Jersey over the 1972-99 period. They find that the leading indexes convey useful information about the future course of economic activity in both states. The authors then construct separate indexes to forecast...

The U.S. current account deficit was at a record level in 1999 and is expected to increase further in 2000. How large can this deficit get? Will an eventual adjustment in the deficit place the U.S. economy at risk? This article examines three arguments often put forth to explain the increase in...

Information about the national economy is typically available well before information about the regional economy. For example, national employment data are usually released about a month before data for individual states, and the state data are often revised subsequently, resulting in a lag of...