Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when...

Many central banks in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are modernising their monetary policy frameworks. Standard statistical procedures have had limited success in identifying the channels of monetary transmission in such countries. Here we take a narrative approach, following Romer...

I propose a new approach to identifying exogenous monetary policy shocks in low-income countries with capital account restrictions. In the case of Mauritania, a domestic repatriation requirement is the key institutional characteristic that allows me to establish exogeneity. Unlike in advanced...

To investigate the effects on Papua New Guinea’s economy of substantial liquified natural gas revenues arriving in 2015, we employ a model to examine the macroeconomic effects of a scalingup of natural resource windfall revenues and the implications for a variety of policy responses. The model...

We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international...

We develop a DSGE model with a banking sector to analyze the impact of the financial crisis on Zambia and the role of the monetary policy response. We view the crisis as a combination of three related shocks: a worsening in the terms of the trade, an increase in the country’s risk...

This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bangladesh’s external position strengthened considerably in FY2009 and the first four months of FY2010. Strong remittances, resilient exports, and weak imports caused the current account of the balance of payments to record a surplus of...

This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that with high oil prices and a significant policy stimulus, the Iranian economy continued to grow strongly in 2005–06. Real GDP growth is estimated at 5½ percent. Oil GDP growth was modest owing to capacity constraints, while non-oil GDP...

This paper discusses key findings of the Fifth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility for Georgia. Despite economic sanctions imposed by Russia in 2006, Georgia’s economic growth continues to be strong, and inflation has declined. Growth is expected to reach 9 percent in...

Sudan’s 2006 Article IV Consultation reports that growth has been robust, inflation has been kept at a single-digit level, and important reforms have been undertaken. There has been progress with financial sector reforms and trade liberalization, and the managed floating exchange rate...