More than eleven years after the end of hyperinflation in Brazil, domestic bond markets have been unable to lengthen the average maturity of both public and private bonds. This paper shows that the lengthening is theoretically and practically (we analyzed the experiences of Israel, Mexico and...

We investigate the controversial role of the informal sector in the economy of 64 countries between 2003 and 2007 by focusing for the first time on the impact it has on sovereign debt markets. In addition to a standard ordered Probit regression, we employ two nonparametric neural network...

Well-designed eurobonds would lower financing costs for many euro area countries while hardly or not increasing the costs for the others. These bonds should have an explicit guarantee from the ECB. These bonds could be used up to a limit of GDP (a low number of 10-25% of GDP would allow to...

We investigate the impact of local and global macroeconomic factors on Eurobonds and local currency issued bonds in Sub-Saharan Africa, at different points on the yield curve. Using a unique proprietary data set collected from local authorities, central banks and independent international...

Climate change poses an existential threat to the global economy. While there is a growing body of literature on the economic consequences of climate change, research on the link between climate change and sovereign default risk is nonexistent. We aim to fill this gap in the literature by...

This paper describes and evaluates the sovereign credit ratings methodologies of Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service, and Fitch Ratings. A simple definition of ratings failure based on ratings stability - is proposed and tested, pointing to falling failure rates, consistent upside bias,...

More than eleven years after the end of hyperinflation in Brazil, domestic bond markets have been unable to lengthen the average maturity of both public and private bonds. This paper shows that the lengthening is theoretically and practically (we analyzed the experiences of Israel, Mexico and...

We develop a dynamic recursive model where political and economic decisions interact, to study how excessive debt-GDP ratios affect political sustainability of prudent fiscal policies. Rent seeking groups make political decisions - to cooperate (or not) - on the allocation of fiscal budgets...

This paper studies the bank-sovereign link in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium set-up with strategic default on public debt. Heterogeneous banks give rise to an interbank market where government bonds are used as collateral. A default penalty arises from a breakdown of interbank...

We build a tractable stylized model of external sovereign debt and endogenous international interest rates. In corrupt economies with rent-seeking groups stealing public resources, a politico-economic equilibrium is characterized by permanent fiscal impatience which leads to excessive issuing of...