The volatility of aggregate economic activity in the United States decreased markedly in the mid eighties. The decrease was diffused among several components of GDP and has been linked to a more stable economic environment, identified by smaller shocks and more effective policy, and a diverse...

Beginning in the 1990s, the growth of mortgage lending was associated with the growth of a new set of mortgage-backed securities. We study the evolution of initial mortgage rates as a function of characteristics of both the loan and the borrower. We find that credit risk historically was priced...

The volatility of aggregate economic activity in the United States decreased markedly in the mid eighties. The decrease involved several components of GDP and has been linked to a more stable economic environment, identified by smaller shocks and more effective policy, and a diverse set of...

Trading by commodity index traders (CITs) has become an important aspect of financial markets over the past 10 years. We develop an equilibrium model of trader behavior that relates uninformed CIT trading to futures prices. The model predicts that CIT trading reduces the cost of hedging. We test...

This paper analyzes exchange rate turmoil with a Markov Switching GARCH model. We distinguish between two different regimes in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance: "ordinary" regime, characterized by low exchange rate changes and low volatility, and "turbulent" regime,...

The events from the 2007-2009 financial crisis have raised concerns that the failure of large financial institutions can lead to destabilizing fire sales of assets. The risk of fire sales is related to exemptions from bankruptcy's automatic stay provision enjoyed by a number of financial...

This paper studies the optimal clearing arrangement for bilateral financial contracts in which an assessment of counterparty credit risk is crucial for efficiency. The economy is populated by borrowers and lenders. Borrowers are subject to limited commitment and hold private information about...