We analyze the properties of multiperiod forecasts which are formulated by a number of companies for a fixed horizon ahead which moves each month one period closer and are collected and diffused each month by some polling agency. Some descriptive evidence and a formal model suggest that knowing...

In this paper we design an econometric test for monotone comparative statics (MCS) often found in models with multiple equilibria. Our test exploits the observable implications of the MCS prediction: that the extreme (high and low) conditional quantiles of the dependent variable increase...

Value at Risk (VaR) has become the standard measure of market risk employed by financial institutions for both internal and regulatory purposes. VaR is defined as the value that a portfolio will lose with a given probability, over a certain time horizon (usually one or ten days). Despite its...

We explore the conceptual basis of "verifiability" by explicitly modeling the process of evidence production in contractual relationships of complete information. Evidence is represented by documents, on the submission of which an enforcement authority conditions transfers between the...

In this article, I exploit a new station-level, twelve-hourly price dataset to examine the strong retail price cycles in the Toronto gasoline market. The cycles are visually similar to the theoretical Edgeworth Cycles of Maskin & Tirole [1988]: strongly asymmetric, tall, rapid, and highly...

This study models the bid-ask spread in financial markets as a function of asset price variability and order flow. The market-maker is characterized as passively accepting orders to buy and to sell a security at the market's prevailing price (plus or minus half the bid-ask spread). The bid-ask...

Sharpe style regression has become a widespread analytic tool in the financial community. The style regression allows one to investigate such interesting issues as style composition, style sensitivity, and style change over time. All previous methods to obtain the distribution and confidence...

Multinational labor deman responds to wage differentials at the extensive margin, when a multinational enterprise (MNE) expands into foreign locations, and at the intensive margin, when an MNE operates existing affiliates across locations. We derive conditions for parametric and nonparametric...

This essay describes one economist's view of how Nash's work influenced the development of game theory as a tool for analyzing strategic behavior.

General equilibrium is investigated with N commodities traded at N(N-1)/2 commodity-pairwise trading posts. Trade is a resource-using activity recovering transactions costs through the spread between bid (wholesale) and ask (retail)prices (quoted as commodity rates of exchange). Budget...