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Forecast models with large cross-sections are often subject to overparameterization leading to unstable parameter estimates and hence inaccurate forecasts. Recent articlessuggest that a large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with sufficient prior information dominates competing approaches....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877596
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877728
– 2010 I exhaustively evaluate the forecasting properties of Bayesian shrinkage in regressions with many predictors. Results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010610451
– 2010 I exhaustively evaluate the forecasting properties of Bayesian shrinkage in regressions with many predictors. Results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009000949
-- 2010 I exhaustively evaluate the forecasting properties of Bayesian shrinkage in regressions with many predictors. Results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009004835
, inflation expectations, exchange rate changes and stock market volatility among others. Hence, forecasting the price of gold is … allows both the forecasting model and the coefficients to change over time. Based on this framework, we systematically … measure of the forecasting performance. We carefully assess which predictors are relevant for forecasting at different points …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420994
, inflation expectations, exchange rate changes and stock market volatility among others. Hence, forecasting the price of gold is … allows both the forecasting model and the coefficients to change over time. Based on this framework, we systematically … measure of the forecasting performance. We carefully assess which predictors are relevant for forecasting at different points …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010417235
, inflation expectations, exchange rate changes and stock market volatility among others. Hence, forecasting the price of gold is … allows both the forecasting model and the coefficients to change over time. Based on this framework, we systematically … measure of the forecasting performance. We carefully assess which predictors are relevant for forecasting at different points …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010934836
This paper assesses the forecasting performance of various variable reduction and variable selection methods. A small … and a large set of wisely chosen variables are used in forecasting the industrial production growth for four Euro Area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605818
usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012214193