from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model … provide two examples of this modelling strategy: (i) forecasting inflation with a disaggregate ensemble; and (ii) forecasting …

In Bayesian analysis of VAR-models, and especially in forecasting applications, the Minnesota prior of Litterman is … report on the forecasting performance of the different prior distributions considered in the paper. …

Macroeconomic forecasting in recessions is not easy due to the inherent asymmetry of business cycle phases and the …-frequency setting. A real-time forecasting experiment highlights the advantage of including the threshold feature for the asymmetry as …

story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …

an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, the paper shows that the proposed approach performs well as compared to other well …