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We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differ in their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010610494
This paper addresses the question of the selection of multivariate GARCH models in terms of variance matrix forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008595652
provide more robust forecasts. We investigate this issue for forecasts from a range of short-term forecasting models. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606017
that asymmetries show up in their unconditional distribution, as well as in their unconditional copula. The VaR forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010279490
This research aims at exploring whether simple trading strategies developed using state-ofthe-art Machine Learning (ML) algorithms can guarantee more than the risk-free rate of return or not. For this purpose, the direction of S&P 500 Index returns on every 6th day (SPYRETDIR6) and magnitude of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012610982
The forecasting of government revenues is extremely important for an adequate budget execution, since a good accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013400244
variables or which ones to use. The results of a recursive forecasting exercise reveal a statistically significant increase in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014496096
that asymmetries show up in their unconditional distribution, as well as in their unconditional copula. The VaR forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005012145
Competition models. Their relative merits in explaining and forecasting inflation are investigated theoretically and empirically … successful inflation forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005764088
The paper compares one-period ahead forecasting performance of linear vector-autoregressive (VAR) models and single …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008541474