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recessions that appears superior to that embodied in the LEI Index, at least when simple rules of thumb are used to extract …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361145
CFNAI to act as an early warning indicator of economic recessions. In simulation experiments, the CFNAI performed virtually …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005373061
Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010724980
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717212
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005410947
The 2001 recession was unique in several respects. For instance, the peak-to-trough decline in real gross domestic product was one of the smallest on record and its duration was slightly shorter than average. This article examines some of the other unique features of the 2001 recession compared...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005519750
Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008461939
Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328746
Fiscal policy has become quite controversial in the post-Keynesian era, the debate over the Obama stimulus package being a contentious recent example. Some pundits go so far as to take the position that macroeconomic theory has failed to meaningfully progress in terms of providing useful...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270872
comprehensive real-time forecasting exercise for recessions in the US. Moreover, we propose a novel smooth transition modelling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180928